The Galapagos: A Laboratory for Studying Climate Change?

It’s great to be here. Scott and I are very excited to talk to people about the Galapagos, and in particular how climate change is affecting the area now and in the future. Scott is sitting in the Galapagos as we speak.

From Scott: This area has been a focus of CI’s work for the last four years, and we’ve been working hard on the conservation of its unique plant and animal life. It’s great to see all of the interest from so many far flung places – the Galapagos is arguably the epicenter of El Nino and climate change. Sitting here right now, I can look out my window and see some of the very plants and animals even the ocean that are being affected. It’s fun to have the opportunity to share these observations – some of which have been taken over a 20 years.

This is a really interesting question. As Ann points out, El Nino is a phenomenon that happens in the Pacific Ocean that happens every two to seven years, and has happened for thousands of years. El Nino changes the unique winds and ocean currents around the Galapagos and along the coast of South and Central America. As a result, the ocean around the Galapagos gets warmer and there is sometimes up to 10 times more rainfall on the land. This can completely change the conditions for plants, animals, and people living in the area.

In the ocean, the warmer waters also means less nutrients. As a result, in El Nino years the marine life that depends on those nutrients can greatly suffer. There have been some computer models and studies of ancient climate records (called paleoclimate) recently that predict that with climate change, the future of the Eastern Pacific looks a lot like El Nino.

So yes, there is evidence that climate change will bring on stronger El Nino-like effects.

Climate change, per se, tends to have its effect gradually over long time periods, so is harder to detect. What we expect is that water temperatures will increase, sea levels will rise and nutrient-rich upwellings will decrease. As a result, we would expect corals sensitive to high temperatures to continue to die off, as they’ve done over the past couple of decades, sea turtle nests to get inundated, and animals such as Galapagos penguins, fur seals, marine iguanas and sea lions to decrease in numbers. If, as many suspect, El Nino is a surrogate for climate change as it produces conditions in a single extreme event that lasts for a year or two, we already have some strong evidence of the drastic impacts that could occur. Species have gone extinct, entire habitats comprised of algae and corals have disappeared and populations such as the penguins were reduced by nearly 80%! Fortunately, these have recovered, but with climate change on top of El Nino events recovery could be impossible. That’s what worries us.

We know from the most recent IPCC reports that there is high confidence that the oceans will get warmer with climate change. In the Galapagos, El Nino warms the waters every two to seven years and with that we can see how these species react to warmer ocean water, and what special adaptations they have to cope with this warmer water. If you like, then, it’s the perfect laboratory for learning lessons about species and people in these changing conditions that look a lot like what we expect climate change to bring about in other parts of the world. Additionally we need to study the species in the Galapagos because we know that climate change will make El Nino conditions worse there.

We’re using techniques looking at how the animals adjust when the water temperature changes. Also, we’ll be looking at changes in the water temperature itself. To do this, we’re working closely with the Charles Darwin Research Station, located in the Galapagos.

Species evolve on time frames measured in the thousands of years and generations subjected to the shaping forces of the environment. Environmental conditions, such as those predicted to be altered by climate change- temperature, winds, rains, etc.- are naturally variable, so species need to build in tolerance to a range of conditions. However, tolerances are finite. Penguins can go only so long without the achovy and sardine-type fish they depend on. Corals can only tolerate warming to a certain degree, beyond which they die off. And, these temperatures are increasingly being exceeded. In short, when the conditions animals are adapted to change faster than their ability to adapt, they die off. This is what we are seeing in Galapagos and other oceanic islands, but also increasinly in terrestrial habitats, too.

There are two answers: What’s largely driving climate change is the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. And humans have been releasing these gases in large amounts beginning somewhere in the 1700s. As a result, there will be some level of climate change. However, we can mitigate by stopping or reducing the release of greenhouse gases.

There’s now overwhelming scientific consensus that human activity is causing climate change, including increased atmospheric temperatures, changing ocean currents, changing ocean temperatures, changing weather patterns, and increasing storm events.

In the first IPCC report, published in February of this year, they confidently state that warming temperatures around the globe are related to the amount of greenhouse gases released by humans over time.

You can find all of IPCC’s reports here: http://www.ipcc.ch/.

The Galapagos economy is almost entirely dependent on tourism, which amounts to several hundred millions of dollars for Ecuador and which provides jobs directly or indirectly for most Galapagos residents. As in the answer to Kim’s question before, many of the most interesting animals in Galapagos are heavily affected by climate change, or at least the conditions of El Nino, which we assume gives us a glimpse of what climate change will look like in the future. Tourism in Galapagos is not your typical sun, sea and swizzle-stick kind- it is nature tourism undertaken by people interested in seeing most of the fascinating animals in the world in their natural setting. On the one hand, during El Nino years many of those interesting animals are starving amongst dead of their own kind. On the other, insects proliferate, including mosquitos, it rains much more and it is quite hot out- hardly the ideal conditions for a tourist. From a scientist’s viewpoint, it is interesting to study these drastic impacts, but for the tourist it is a bit depressing. That being said, the waters are warm, blue and wonderful for snorkeling, but there’s less to see!

Perhaps, but these changes are happening more rapidly than ever before seen in history. In previous changes found in the geological record, species adapted with changes in climate and other conditions, but it remains to be seen whether any of today’s species will be able to adapt quickly enough.

Great question. Planning for climate change will vary greatly from place to place because of different conditions and different communities living in various areas. In the Galapagos, a key piece of conservation planning will be working with scientific experts, local communities, and the local government to conduct a vulnerability assessment. This is the process of, to the best of our ability, determining how climate change will physically affect the islands – how it will change ocean conditions and atmospheric conditions. And then, we want to know how climate change will affect the people, plants, and animals living there.

From this, we can identify the most threatened places for conservation and help the local community prepare for anticipated changes.

So as a result of this assessment, we might help the government change where development occurs; we might also identify certain species, like the Galapagos penguin, that are particularly threatened and help the park service work on a plan for its protection.

Although El Nino events have been around for a long time, the magnitude registered in the 1983/1984 and 1997/1998 events appears unprecedented. In addition to this, in the past El Nino events were not accompanied by fishing pressure, which further stresses ecosystems. In the case of recent extinctions and mass reductions, such as the 95% loss of corals, some experts hypothesize that it has been the interaction between extreme events and other stressors that is responsible. Regarding regeneration, the good news is that corals in the places where significant colonies survived seem to be doing quite well. On a recent trip I participated in last month, world expert Peter Glynn, who has been studying Galapagos corals since the 1970’s, was very impressed with recovery. We just have to hope that conditions will remain favorable for continued recovery. Additionally, it will be important that resource users and managers adopt the measures required to reduce combined stresses that can retard recovery.

The IPCC report released on Friday showed that developed countries are producing most of greenhouse gas emissions, and yet it is most developing countries (like Ecuador where the Galapagos are located) that will feel the most dramatic impacts of climate change. There are 25,000 people living in the Galapagos (closer to 2,500 in the 1960s) – this few number of people are not bringing about these changes upon themselves. The actions you take in your home is a direct way for you to help mitigate the effects of climate change all around the world, including in the Galapagos Islands.

As in any natural place, the safest course of action is to just leave a healthy ecosystem alone as we can never be sure what the effects of our use, or even presence, might cause. However, this course is rarely socially and politically viable, especially in countries where poverty is high and job opportunties are limited. Of all uses, ecotourism, including dive and snorkeling tourism, can be a viable economic opportunity with manageable impacts. Of course, the trick is to be aware of the possible impacts and proactively implement measures to minimize them. In the case of diving, operators need to be particularly conscientious of where they anchor and how they manage their wastes. Divers and snorkelers need to keep a respectful distance from animals to not affect their behaviour. In Galapagos, we have a ‘no touch’ policy- this not only applies to sharks (easy to enforce!), but also small animals such as sea horses and seashells. CI and our partners at the Charles Darwin Research Station, WildAid and with the help of tour operators, guides and all working with the National Park Service are currently working together to install fixed moorings to protect sensitive sites now. There’s plenty more to do, but this is an important measure.

In a normal year, nutrients are supplied to the Galapagos by deep ocean currents that rise to the surface near the islands. These nutrients feed the entire food chain, from the phytoplankton – tiny little plants that live in the water – all the way up to the sharks and whales. However, in El Nino years, warm water at the surface blocks the deep ocean, nutrient-rich water. As a result, this has huge impacts on the food chain. We think climate change will make this happen more often and more significantly over time.

This effect starves many species during El Nino years. Dying fur seals and marine iguanas were not an uncommon sight during the last El Nino year. Fish populations are already adapted to cope with the impact of El Nino on their populations. Once temperatures return to normal and the nutrients return, the fish populations normally recover. However, because the fish populations are so vulnerable during El Nino years, it is particularly important that we work directly with local fisherman to reduce pressure on their populations during those years.

Yes, we see different species in the Galapagos during El Nino years – mainly ocean species from the Central and Western Pacific, such as sea snakes. This is because the warmer conditions are suitable for warmer climate species. However, these species usually quickly disappear after El Nino years when the colder water conditions return.

If climate change brings warmer temperatures more often or more permanently, these species may become permanent residents of the Galapagos and threaten the local species.

Fire ants and paper wasps have been introduced in other ways (for instance, in someone’s luggage) are better adapted to the warmer, wetter conditions of El Niño than the local species. This means that these invasive species thrive during El Nino years when local species are suffering.

The Darwin Station and Park Service have been working in Galapagos since the 1960’s. Arguably, the Galapagos continues to be the world’s most pristine oceanic archipelago, and this is largely due to the efforts of these organizations. Regarding climate change challenges specifically, CI, the Darwin Station, the Park Service and others began discussions some time ago regarding priority actions to protect both the environment and the local economy in the face of climate change. I think we are converging on agreements that climate change impacts need to be built into all planning exercises, projects and funding proposals we might prepare, whether together or separately. This is the first step to becoming equipped, and we hope to be successful in our bids for funding so we can proactively avoid extinctions of the sort you refer to, which fortunately have been very few so far.

Sea birds are particularly threatened by climate change. In the Galapagos, we have seen the sea bird populations dramatically fall during El Nino years, as a result of the decrease in fish populations. Some of the Galapagos birds that are affected include the blue-footed booby, which abandon their nests because there is insufficient food for breeding. During the 1982-83 El Nino, all 15 species of sea birds that nest on the Galapagos Islands were affected. Some of them didn’t breed at all, and others had limited breeding. If with climate change this happens more often, it will greatly affect these species populations.

The IPCC report released in February showed the total sea level rise over the 20th Century to be about 20 centimeters – so 6 to 7 inches. In the future, they predict up to 3 additional feet in this century.

Hi Ian! In fact, it was my Oxford days, where climate change was an important focus of the Environmental Change and Management MSc course, combined with 20 years in Galapagos that have me sitting here answering these questions now. As for a message- I live in the epicenter of El Nino, and the evidence is that El Nino conditions give us a window into the future. In ‘normal’ (non El Nino) years, you can’t help but wake up every morning inspired by the stark beauty of islands scattered across the blue sea and marvelous creatures that surround our little house in the hills. Although a scientist by training, that should be fascinated by the research opportunity presented by studying the impacts of El Nino, I can’t tell you just how painful it is to see sea lions, penguins, marine iguanas and entire coral reefs starve, die and decay during big El Ninos. And these impacts will be repeated at marvelous places all around the world- the message is: we can all do something to reduce our emissions and better yet, to assist research, management and conservation organizations to mitigate impacts. What are we waiting for? Do what you can do today and help others do something, too!

It’s been great participating in this on-line chat and we hope we’ve answered a few questions in ways that will increase understanding, and most importantly, encourage responsible behaviour.

Indeed, Galapagos is one of the most special places in the world- full of bizarre and unique species found nowhere else and set in a beautiful, near-pristine setting where the visitor (and resident!) can really feel like they are in the heart of untouched nature. Although El Ninos and climate change threaten this, and other unique places around the world, together, private citizens, the private sector and conservation organizations such as CI can make a difference. We encourge you to do your part and support us in doing ours. Thanks!